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ACNH Move Out Calculator

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ACNH Move Out Calculator

Toy model only: longer in-town tenure and middling friendship often correlate with earlier move-out pings in community guides. Mechanics and patches differ; treat as a conversation starter, not a forecast.

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What is ACNH Move Out Calculator?

Estimates move-out probability and expected days for target villagers in Animal Crossing: New Horizons.

ACNH Move Out Calculator Formula / Method

P(any ping) ≈ 1/15 per day

P(target)=1/(n−1)P(target) = 1/(n−1)
P(targetmovestoday)=P(anyping)×P(target)P(target moves today) = P(any ping)×P(target)
E(days)=1/P(targetmovestoday)E(days)=1/P(target moves today)

ACNH Move Out Calculator Worked Example

n=10villagersn=10 villagers
P(target)=1/9=11.1P(target)=1/9=11.1%
P(targetmovestoday)=(1/15)×(1/9)=1/135=0.74P(target moves today)=(1/15)×(1/9)=1/135=0.74%

Expected days ≈ 135 (without time-travel optimization)

Where ACNH Move Out Calculator Is Applied

  • Island roster management
  • Dreamie targeting
  • Guide/wiki content
  • Community bot tooling

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